...it would be a retrograde step if the short-term relief brought by immigration policy was an excuse not to address the more fundamental problems the sector faces.
In January 2022, the ILC’s Plugging the gap report warned that due to population ageing, COVID-19 and Brexit, the UK economy could see a shortfall of 2.6 million workers by 2030 – almost twice the workforce of the NHS.
Post-pandemic, high vacancy rates are prevalent across the whole UK labour market, but the social care sector has even higher staff turnover and vacancies. In 2018, the ONS projected that the number of people in England aged 85 or over would increase to 3.2 million by 2041 and the latest ONS Census 21 data confirmed this trend. With the oldest old more likely to have some form of disability, this demographic trend will drive a significant increase in the need for social care.
Pre-Brexit research published in November 2015 by the ILC and Independent Age highlighted the dependency of the sector on migrant workers. Moved to care: the impact of migration of adult social care warned of serious shortfalls and concluded:
“….we project that by 2037, if working in care becomes increasingly unattractive and net migration is comparatively low, the workforce could have over one million fewer care workers relative to demand than is the case today…In order to close the workforce gap over the entire period, the proportion of working age people in England, working in the adult social care sector, needs to rise from around 4% today, to around 6% by 2037”.
In April 2022, the Migration Advisory Commission (MAC) report Adult social care and immigration said the sector needed an additional 66,000 FTEs to fulfil current demand and a further 236,000 FTEs to keep up with growing care needs. Social care employs around 2% of the working-age population today and may need to employ 4% to fulfil demand by 2033. Whilst most workers were British nationals, migrant workers form a considerable part of the sector. In 2020, 1 in 4 social care workers were born outside the UK, many outside the European Economic Area (EEA).
However, the ILC would agree with the MAC report, that while “immigration policy may be able to help alleviate some of the workforce problems that the sector is facing, it is not the best solution to these problems.”
Aside from the issues around poaching valuable staff from deprived countries, it would be a retrograde step if the short-term relief brought by immigration policy was an excuse not to address the more fundamental problems the sector faces.
Pay must clearly be improved, but we must better support the largely female workforce and plug the gaps. Employers must ensure healthier workplaces, offer support for those with unpaid caring responsibilities and allow flexibility. Our approach to care needs to become more preventative, more people-centred and delivered more efficiently. ILC’s latest report, The Mayhew Review: Future Proofing Retirement Living shows it would be more efficient to provide more housing with integrated care.